The recent formation of the NDA government in Bihar has sparked speculation about the upcoming floor test scheduled for February 12th in the Bihar Legislative Assembly. This test holds significant importance as it will determine the majority status of the Nitish Kumar-led government. Meanwhile, Tejashwi Yadav has already hinted at forthcoming political maneuvers, suggesting that the game is far from over. As anticipation builds, questions arise regarding the potential outcomes and the strategies of key players.
Nitish Kumar’s Latest Move
On January 28, 2024, Nitish Kumar secured the support of 128 legislators as he took oath as the Chief Minister for the ninth time. Among these supporters, 78 belong to the BJP, 45 to the JD(U), with one independent legislator and four from Jitan Ram Manjhi’s party, ‘HAM,’ also extending their support. With a majority mark set at 122, Nitish Kumar’s government currently holds a comfortable lead of six legislators. However, amidst claims from the RJD camp about their outreach efforts and alleged absenteeism of JD(U) members, concerns loom over the potential outcome of the impending floor test.
Expert Analysis: Arun Kumar Pandey’s Insights
Political analyst Arun Kumar Pandey offers valuable insights into the unfolding scenario. He suggests that while discussions among various parties indicate an upcoming showdown, these may merely be political posturing. Pandey outlines the sequence of events, noting that preceding the floor test on February 12th, the Governor’s address to the Assembly will take place. Subsequently, a motion of no confidence against the Speaker will be tabled. Pandey speculates that if the current Speaker, Avadh Bihari Chaudhary, receives support in the event of a vote, it will signal trouble for the Nitish Kumar government.
Possibility of an RJD-led Government?
Contrary to some speculations, Pandey dismisses the likelihood of an RJD-led government formation. He asserts that any such development would not occur without Nitish Kumar’s prior knowledge. Furthermore, Pandey emphasizes that if Nitish Kumar appears in the Assembly on February 12th, it would quell many speculations. However, should a few NDA legislators fail to attend, the government’s stability may be at risk. While the formation of an RJD-led government seems improbable, Pandey suggests that even if a few JD(U) or BJP legislators defect, it could destabilize the current political equilibrium.
Potential Party Defections: Impact on Bihar’s Political Landscape
Pandey explains the intricate dynamics involved in the event of JD(U) or BJP legislators abstaining from the floor test and refusing to support the government. According to parliamentary norms, defection by one-third of the legislators warrants a change in party affiliation, a scenario currently unlikely. However, even a minor exodus could jeopardize the Nitish Kumar-led government. Consequently, the prospect of a President’s rule looms large over Bihar. Ultimately, Pandey concludes that despite the ongoing speculations, Nitish Kumar’s government is likely to emerge victorious in the upcoming floor test, consolidating its majority status.
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